July Auto Sales Expected to Get 2nd Half of 2016 Off to a Fast Start, Forecasts Edmunds.com

“With low interest rates and a leasing market that’s stronger than ever, automakers have a great opportunity to build on last year’s burst of summer sales.”

Santa Monica, CA July 27, 2016 — Edmunds.com, the leading car information and shopping network, forecasts that 1,519,576 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July, for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.8 million.



July auto sales reflect a 0.7% increase from June 2016, and a 0.8% increase from July 2015. The forecast anticipates that it will be the best for the month of July since 1.8 million sales were registered in July 2005.

Edmunds.com projects that 10,159,636 new cars and trucks will be sold this year in the U.S. through the end of July, up 1.3% from the 10,028,814 sales recorded through the first seven months of 2015’s record-breaking year.

“Last year’s record-setting sales performance was powered primarily by a strong second half, and July sales suggest that 2016 is poised to play out in the same way,” says Edmunds.com executive director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.

“With low interest rates and a leasing market that’s stronger than ever, automakers have a great opportunity to build on last year’s burst of summer sales,” Caldwell continues. “The growth might not be as significant as in recent years, but it’s still growth nonetheless.”

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume July 2016 Forecast July 2015 June 2016 Change from July 2015 Change from June 2016
GM 277,636 272,512 255,210 1.9% 8.8%
Ford 218,276 222,014 239,096 -1.7% -8.7%
Toyota 212,581 217,181 198,257 -2.1% 7.2%
Fiat Chrysler 184,447 178,027 197,073 3.6% -6.4%
Honda 147,080 146,324 138,715 0.5% 6.0%
Nissan 136,614 130,872 140,553 4.4% -2.8%
Hyundai/Kia 132,091 127,324 130,083 3.7% 1.5%
VW/Audi 41,895 48,954 42,254 -14.4% -0.8%
Industry 1,519,576 1,507,663 1,509,177 0.8% 0.7%

*NOTE: July 2016 had 26 selling days, July 2015 had 26 and June 2016 had 26.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.3 million vehicles in July 2016, with fleet transactions accounting for 14.1% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used cars will be sold in July 2016, for a SAAR of 38.7 million (compared to 3.2 million—or a SAAR of 38.7 million—used car sales in June 2016).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share July 2016 Forecast July 2015 June 2016 Change from July 2015 Change from June 2016
GM 18.3% 18.1% 16.9% 0.2% 1.4%
Ford 14.4% 14.7% 15.8% -0.4% -1.5%
Toyota 14.0% 14.4% 13.1% -0.4% 0.9%
Fiat Chrysler 12.1% 11.8% 13.1% 0.3% -0.9%
Honda 9.7% 9.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.5%
Nissan 9.0% 8.7% 9.3% 0.3% -0.3%
Hyundai/Kia 8.7% 8.4% 8.6% 0.2% 0.1%
VW/Audi 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% -0.5% 0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com’s Industry Center at www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc.

Car shopping destination Edmunds.com serves millions of visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of “The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive” by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions on its free Live Help Line at 1-855-782-4711 and help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan, but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTube, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google+ and Flipboard.

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