New Black Book Analysis Shows Varying Retention Trends of Discontinued Models

Not all discontinued vehicles depreciate alike


Lawrenceville, GA July 30, 2018 — Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, made available today a new analytics-driven report that looks at why certain vehicle models were discontinued over the last several years, and how they’ve retained their values since discontinuation. Click here to view the complete analysis.

Some car and truck models, despite their popularity, are discontinued because manufacturers simply move production strategies in a new direction. When this happens, certain models retain their values better than their segment average, while others see retention values plummet.

Black Book conducted a thorough analysis that includes a mix of small- and mid-size cars, trucks, SUVs and minivans. Their discontinuation dates vary over the last few decades, and the reasons for their discontinuation are as diverse as the vehicles themselves.

As an example of this analysis, Black Book data show that the Toyota FJ Cruiser, whose last model year was 2014, has actually gone up in value by 25.7% compared to other vehicles that were listed in its segment. The Hummer H2 is second-best in retention at 18.5%.

Toyota FJ Cruiser was acclaimed for its off-road performance. The wide stance and short wheelbase made it look quirky. In the last model year of production, it sold only about 14,000 in 2014. Given the uniqueness of this vehicle and the relative high demand from enthusiasts, it became a modern collectible. The change in three-year retention for Toyota FJ Cruiser was a whopping 26 percentage points better than the Mid-Size Crossover/SUV segment.

Conversely, the Mazda MPV minivan, last produced in 2006, has lost -15.8% of its value compared to other vehicles in its segment, and the Mercury Milan has lost -9.5% compared to others in its segment after it was discontinued in 2011.

With highly accurate vehicle depreciation data available, combined with advanced analytical modeling and input from seasoned editors with a rich network of automotive expertise, Black Book data-driven innovation and resources are used help the entire automotive ecosystem maximize profit potential and limit exposure to risk and losses.

Today’s analytical data helps Black Book understand exactly how each model and trim level depreciates based on historical patterns, also taking into account certain economic scenarios as well as global economic events.

“Our analytics approach enables us to take a deeper look into historical depreciation trends to better understand how certain vehicle retention has performed over time,” said Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations at Black Book. “This information proves valuable to automotive dealers, lenders, OEMs and other industry professionals who each need a deeper understanding of vehicle retention patterns for the buying, selling, stocking, and financing of vehicle models.”


Click here to view the complete analysis.

About Black Book

Black Book® is best known in the automotive industry for providing timely, independent and precise vehicle pricing information, and is available to industry-qualified users through online subscription products, mobile applications and licensing agreements. Since 1955 Black Book has continuously evolved to ensure that it achieves its goal of delivering mission-critical information to its customers, along with the insight necessary to successfully buy, sell, and lend. Black Book data is published daily by National Auto Research, a division of Hearst, and the company maintains offices in Georgia, Florida, and Maryland as well as the Canadian Black Book in Toronto. For more information, please visit BlackBook.com or call 800.554.1026.

Media Contact

John Sternal, Merit Mile for Black Book, 954-592-1201

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